Has the Egyptian King conquered the world?
Tuesday 19th October 2021 by Tom Ball
Mo Salah’s is well and truly on fire. He has scored two goals that will be remembered for a long time in back-to-back games and is once again topping the Premier League’s scoring charts, he also remains early favourite for Player of the Season. However, his mesmerising form has brought forward a debate that seems superfluous and somewhat unfair on the Egyptian.
Is Mo Salah the Best Player in the World? - that question has been commonly supplemented with the term ‘right now’, but that does not seem to fully rid it of its redundancy. This debate is only being had because Lionel Messi has started just four games for Paris-Saint Germain this season. This is not to say that Messi is the only candidate. Robert Lewandowski is doing his job as well as he has ever done it, while Karim Benzema has continued his brilliant form for Real Madrid in the first few games of the season.
These debates are filled with different metrics and assessments that seem to end after time itself but we can more or less scratch the surface.
Admittedly, Mo Salah would have a good chance of winning the Ballon D’or if it started when he started playing well and ended now. When you give that notion a bit more of a think it sounds a bit stupid doesn’t it?
Applying the same logic to Ilkay Gundogan’s form in December and January of last season, it could have been said he was the best midfielder, or even player in the world then. Of course, many would disagree with me, and rightfully so. But that raises a question of why is this discussion now raised for Mohammed Salah?
Well, it could be because he has been incredible for four seasons now. The guy is rapidly enhancing his Premier League legacy and is already considered a great in his own right. However, to say he is the best based upon the last 3-4 seasons doesn’t hold much weight because Lionel Messi has been in the top 3 of Ballon d’or voting for not just three of the last four seasons but twelve of the last thirteen seasons. While has not appeared once, even at the end of his 44-goal season in 2017-18.
Messi has been in and out of this Paris-Saint Germain side due to injury and the lateness of his move from Barcelona. His team were essentially played off the park by arguably the best team in the world; Manchester City but they managed to win that game because of his magic.
Now, Salah did score an incredible goal against the same team but this was a game littered with exceptional performances from Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva. City went home with a draw due to Kevin De Bruyne’s brilliance to capture that second goal.
De Bruyne has presented Mo Salah’s biggest obstacle in being the undisputed King of the Premier League. Since Eden Hazard departed for Madrid, the two have sat either side of the Best Player in The League debate.
This is where the unfairness in this conversation comes to the fore. The debate is frustrating as it prompts the desire to discredit the Egyptian King’s brilliance, and through no fault of his own. However, Salah has not been able to unanimously convince the footballing world that he is the best player in the Premier League over the last four seasons, let alone the world. He has never been seriously considered in World Player of the Year or Ballon D’or discussions, unlike Messi, Ronaldo and Mbappe. However, he is suddenly meant to be the Best Player in the World, not just because of his last 9 games, but because of his last 4 seasons?
Much of this debate is rooted in his goal tally for the season. This is indicative of the dilution of stat comparisons over recent years. Lionel Messi has sat in the Top 3% in almost all attacking stats over the last year. Salah may lead him in goals and if you pick and choose the competitions perhaps assists in some scenarios. However, the numbers say Messi, is more creative, influential, valuable, clinical and essentially better in almost anything other than purely goals - backing up the eye-tests. However, if we are talking about just this very short eight game season everyone seems to think ends now then Salah does have him.
percentiles rank the player within a certain percentage in comparisons to all other players in the corresponding position
stats are from the last 365 days and are provided by fbref.com
The two main competitors to Salah’s non-existent crown are Robert Lewandowski and Karim Benzema. It’s very useful that all three have played the same amount of games for their clubs this season as of writing this.
As you can see, Benzema and Lewandowski beat Salah in Goals, Goals per 90, Goals and Assists per 90, Goals minus penalty kicks, and Goals minus penalty kicks per 90.
stats provided by fbref.com
Benzema has 16 direct goal involvements in 8 games. He also beats Salah in both Goals and Assists while having a lower expected goals and matching his expected assists. Which means he is just more efficient and more clinical than Salah is.
Lewandowski is another man who would have undoubtedly beaten Salah to the Ballon D’or last season and is likely to be ahead of him in voting this season. Just over a year on from securing a treble for Bayern Munich and just months after breaking Gerd Muller’s Bundesliga scoring record, scoring 41 goals in 29 games in the league. While many will look to the monopoly Bayern have on their domestic game, Lewandowski’s form carries over into the Champions League.
This begins another debate, Mo Salah plays in the most competitive and highest quality league in the world. Much like the response to the stupidity of using the same argument against Lionel Messi, there is plenty of evidence that Lewandowski and Benzema transfer their form against teams all over Europe.
You could say this is falling into the same relentless comparison of numbers on a screen or sheet of paper that many are exceeding necessity with in the first place. On the other hand, the stats have always backed Salah up. He has never been Eden Hazard or Alexis Sanchez, players who embraced the role as the league’s showman while also putting up half decent numbers. Salah is every stat-man’s dream, Liverpool fans and his supporters have joined the stat revolution.
It is just quite remarkable that perhaps the highest opinion the footballing world has ever had of him comes when the stats do not back it up.
This then leads us to a debate on ‘eye-test’. His two goals against Watford and Man City brought people to their feet, they were mesmeric. However, the application of an ‘eye-test’ suggests that stats do not matter. Judging by the goal against Manchester City, Lionel Messi its still at his bewildering best, he has played almost a quarter of the minutes the other three have played, and for a new club.
The reactionary nature of the modern day football dialogue is producing reactionary responses to certain arguments. It has produced a Ballon D’or for Luka Modric and a UEFA Men’s Player of the Year for Jorginho in recent years.
Falling in love with Lionel Messi as a footballer was you wanting to switch on La Liga and watch him play. It wasn’t because he has an unfathomable amount of goal involvements throughout his career or he looks good on sheet full of numbers. Mo Salah is exceptional and a truly great talisman who will go down as a Premier League great. However, one purple patch of form doesn’t elevate many World Class players above anyone, especially when their rivals are doing the same.