Should Gareth Southgate stay?
Monday 12th December by Tom Ball
Saturday did not feel fair. Not because of the refereeing or the penalty, but because England’s performance throughout this last month warranted more.
The 2018 World Cup saw England’s second-place group stage finish give them a run to the World Cup final that required them to beat Colombia, Sweden, and Croatia. Two of those sides did not even qualify for this year’s tournament and while Croatia find themselves in the last four yet again, England would fancy themselves against them.
There is no doubt most of the country, as well as Gareth Southgate, would have bitten your hand off if you offered to swap that World Cup run with this year's. When the draw happened, many pencilled in that December 10th 7pm slot for England Vs. France. England were not the favourites, but Southgate’s England needed that test to show how capable they were.
That test came and the performance was everything England’s boss would have wanted. However, the team with the World Cup in their back pocket and much fewer demons to overcome advanced.
There is no doubt England have come a long way. From being glad they lost their last 2018 group match to Belgium for the easier draw to saying ‘Bring it on' to a clash with the reigning World Champions. This was not out of some underdog delusion, England had the talent and confidence to win that game, and on a different day, they probably could have.
Southgate has not confirmed he will be in charge of England for EURO 2024 in 18 months - openly stating he is yet to decide on his future. For the most part, Southgate won over a few this tournament. Despite it being the earliest they have fallen in a tournament under him, not many will disagree that this is the best version of Southgate’s England. 2018 was an inspiring run deep into the tournament, but 2022 was the first World Cup in decades in which England had genuine capabilities to win, not just an outside shot.
Without trying to compile anyone’s misery, getting past France would have seen the tournament open up for England, and probably will have catapulted them to favourites, especially with the exits of Portugal and Brazil.
The FA and Southgate now enter an unprecedented situation for the Three Lions. Southgate is, without a doubt, England’s best-performing manager since the one and only Sir Alf Ramsey. He also has by far the best tournament record of any England manager ever. Nevertheless, the FA and GS have to decide whether this relationship has run its course.
One reason this is unprecedented is that there is little animosity, and Southgate’s comments suggest it is mainly up to him whether he stays. Capello and Hodgson both resigned, but were essentially ushered out by either the FA themselves or the fans. Yet, despite Southgate having his critics, the popular opinion of him is that he should stay if he wants to.
There were indications that he was considering walking after this World Cup before the tournament, and that was said to be regardless of how far England went.
Another reason that makes this situation unprecedented is that Southgate has muddied the water for what England needs and wants from a coach. We mentioned Fabio Capello, who ended up walking after disagreeing with how the FA treated John Terry in the aftermath of the Former Chelsea captain’s racism scandal with Anton Ferdinand. Capello won eight league titles and the Champions League across his three stints at AC Milan, Real Madrid and Roma.
Capello walked into a very decent continuation from the golden generation after they failed to qualify for EURO 2008 under Steve McLaren. He oversaw England’s 2010 World Cup campaign, where they played four games, won just one, scored just three goals and crashed out in the Round of 16 losing 4-1 to Germany.
One of the game’s greatest managers of the previous twenty years oversaw arguably England’s worst performance in a World Cup this century given the easiness of their group, and the talent the squad still possessed.
Therefore, claiming the final step towards glory for this England squad is putting one of the club game’s most successful managers in charge is something that recent history does not back up. There is a risk involved.
There is a chance that bringing in a more credible tactical mind like Thomas Tuchel or Mauricio Pochettino could be that final step. However, Southgate has created a glue in this England setup that has no guarantee of staying if he were to leave. England by no means wants to hit a reset button. They need to build upon this.
Much of this want for a new manager comes from the fast-moving, fluid nature of club management. Things aren’t quite what you want them to be? Oh just change the manager. Unfortunately, international football doesn’t work like that. People are quite nervous because World Cup don’t have ‘there’s always next year’, they have ‘there’s always 2026’ and ‘there’s always 2030’. However, that mindset can also work against replacing the manager. If England hire a new boss who instantly makes the performance levels and atmosphere around the team worse, you are in a race against time to make that coach or find a new coach that will get everything right.
Hypothetically, the FA hire Thomas Tuchel, perhaps the most high-profile and prolific manager to express interest in managing England. If Tuchel, known for his spiky nature, falls out with a couple of the nation’s favourite players and slightly underachieves at the next World Cup - many will sit there with pie in their faces asking why we let Southgate go.
Further to this, two managers had won trebles at club level heading into this World Cup. Luis Enrique and Hansi Flick both underachieved despite their huge club resume’s. There are present day proof that dropping successful club coaches into these situations isn’t a sure bet.
So it’s all these unknowns and risks that mean the FA have sensibly landed on giving Southgate the power. Only he knows best whether he has the mental fortitude to take this team further.
There are genuine criticisms of him. The criticism during EURO 2020 was that his approach was too conservative and that his game management in the final is what let Italy drag us to penalties. This World Cup has seen him rid this group of the more conservative approach. Perhaps the maturing of many of England’s amazing young talents is what has warranted that increased trust.
Bukayo Saka is finding form in an impressive Arsenal side, and Phil Foden and Mason Mount are becoming more and more important to their clubs’ success. But most impactful is Jude Bellingham’s climb to captaining Borussia Dortmund and becoming one of the best midfielders in Europe.
It’s this important progression in many of England’s young stars’ careers that are allowing Southgate to slowly alleviate the handbrake.
Despite this improvement in approach, it still seems as if Southgate struggles to foresee issues within games before they arrive. Much of his substitutions and tweaks in the games against Croatia, Italy and France have been reactive rather than proactive.
Something that he has authority over, but is also the job of his assistant Steve Holland and other backroom staff to recognise and analyse how England can swing game states in their favour. Acceptance that the initial approach hasn’t worked was okay to do in the second group game against the USA, but a quarter-final against France needs more bold and smart adjustments.
It is very easy to see these footballing issues and conclude that a great knockout tournament manager in Thomas Tuchel is the answer, but you need to realise what positives you are putting at risk of losing if Southgate does move on.
This is why it would be unsurprising that the FA would consider the aforementioned Steve Holland to succeed Southgate. GS was an internal hire himself, graduating from the Under 21’s position after the Sam Allardyce scandal.
Whatever the future of the England job is, we are unlikely to be waiting long for an answer. EURO 2024 is only 18 months away, if that tournament started today, England would be a huge contender to win that tournament due to the smaller pool of teams and slightly lower stakes in brings than a World Cup. The FA are unlikely to want to jeopardise the chances of that tournament using up time finding a new manager. If a new boss is to come on, 18 months is not a lot of time to progress a team to compete for a EURO title.
The holding back on Southgate’s future is in stark contrast to the almost immediate departures of Luis Enrique, Louis Van Gaal, and Tite from their respective national sides following their World Cup exits. It shows how much the FA value him, and how an emotionally charged or rushed decision is in no way the sensible one.
Gareth Southgate means a lot to the players, and despite the division he creates at times, he means a lot to the country and the fans. The atmosphere and togetherness surrounding the national side is something that seemed utterly impossible just six years ago, it is very hard to describe how much he has turned the England national football team around. Whatever his future, he will go down in history.